UFC Fight Night Expert picks best bets for Blanchfield-Fiorot

Carolina Panthers 2024 NFL draft picks Bryce Young gets help with WR Xavier Legette RB Jonathan Brooks

Women's flyweight contenders Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Blanchfield, ESPN's top fighter in last year's top 25 under 25 rankings, is undefeated in the UFC. Her last two wins are over former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and former flyweight title challenger Taila Santos. Blanchfield is No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings.

Fiorot, ranked No. 3, is also undefeated inside the Octagon. She beat former strawweight champ Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision in her last fight. All of Fiorot's last four wins came against fighters who have held or challenged for a UFC title.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Fortis MMA coach Sayif Saud to get his perspective on the UFC main event. Betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and offer other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Women's flyweight: Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach

How Blanchfield wins: Blanchfield showed in her last fight how determined she can be to get that takedown, and that she won't get discouraged if she can't get it. She went through a lot of adversity in her last fight against Santos, but she still found a way to control the fight and win. Her standup is improving, but she's probably going to need that takedown to win this one. I'm very impressed with her ability to not only win position battles but control an opponent in different positions. That is not easy to do in modern MMA. She's very tough, and I imagine she'll need to lean on that toughness at times during this fight.

How Fiorot wins: She's been doing karate her entire life. Undefeated in Muay Thai, a national champion. And now she's 11-1 in MMA. She has a proven track record of simply knowing how to win fights on the feet. The key for her in this fight is managing that distance, especially early. Of course, when you're facing an opponent that wants to take you down, every time you throw a kick you're taking a risk of being taken down, so I do expect her best offense to come with punches. But early in the fight, I'd maintain that kicking distance and just feel out what she's dealing with in Blanchfield. Feel out Blanchfield's movements and strategy. If she controls distance, she wins.

X factor: Cardio. This is a five-round fight. Who is going to have the cardio to continue to implement her game plan in the later rounds? Blanchfield's style is exhausting. Will she have the energy to keep pursuing takedowns late? And for Fiorot, will she have the cardio to continue to move her feet and land meaningful offense, while expending energy to defend takedowns?

Prediction: If Blanchfield doesn't submit her early, which is always possible, I think this style matchup benefits Fiorot. So, either Blanchfield by submission early, or Fiorot by decision or late knockout.

Betting analysis

Kuhn: Blanchfield to win (-190). We've got a clear striker-versus-grappler matchup. Something's got to give. Fiorot has excellent hands and tends to stay out of danger by avoiding strikes at an elite level. She can also press an aggressive pace, which makes her takedown defense of 92% even more impressive.

But not many opponents have committed to taking Fiorot down. It seems many give up early, then lose the long game of point striking against her. Only Namajunas attempted a lot of takedowns, but in her first step up to flyweight, she seemed too undersized to land any against Fiorot.

Enter Blanchfield, who has leveraged her dangerous submission game on the mat and clinch control on the feet when she can't get the fight down. In her last fight, she went 0 for 14 on takedowns but still spent over half the fight in control of a larger opponent. She'll need that same persistence to stifle Fiorot, but as you know by now, I tend to favor the grappler in matchups like this.

Parker: Fiorot to win (+160). Blanchfield enters her title eliminator as a near 2-to-1 favorite. That number is way too high considering that on the feet she will be at a major striking disadvantage. This fight is going to come down to this: Can Blanchfield get the fight to the ground and finish Fiorot? My answer: That is easier said than done, as Fiorot has excellent takedown defense, fights from a distance and is one of the physically strongest fighters in the division. I think Fiorot is going to use her distance striking and be able to keep this fight standing, where she will outclass Blanchfield. Even if Fiorot gets taken down, I think she will be able to use the fence to get back up to striking range. If this fight stays on the feet, it won't even be close.

Best bets on the rest of the card Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley

Kuhn: Lean Buckley to win (-105). As impressive as Luque's UFC run has been, his poor head strike defense presents an increasing liability as he accumulates career damage at age 32. With 17 knockdowns scored between these two combined, and a below average takedown rate for both, we should see plenty of leather traded.

Luque is more accurate offensively, but eating punches against an opponent with much more power could end poorly. In a striking duel with this much finishing potential, I'll take the plus money on Buckley.

Featherweight: Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson

Parker: Algeo to win (-250). Algeo's style is never fun to deal with, and if you aren't able to keep up with a frenetic pace throughout three rounds, you are in for a rough night. Algeo is an excellent grappler with unpredictable striking and KO power. I think his movement and constant pressure are going to be way too much for Nelson, who tends to rely on his one-punch power rather than throwing punches in bunches. Look for Algeo to wear down Nelson as the fight goes on.

Featherweight: Nate Landwehr vs. Jamall Emmers

Parker: Over 2.5 rounds (-145). Landwehr was on a solid three-fight win streak that came to a halt last June at the hands of Dan Ige. To win, Landwehr either has to finish his opponent early or tire him out and win late. Unfortunately, he is fighting someone in Emmers who has good durability, good cardio and even better offensive wrestling. I expect Emmers to turn this into a wrestling match early and make Landwehr work off his back and take away his striking. I expect this fight to go bell to bell with Emmers leading the way other than the occasional "Nate the Train" moments here and there.

Strawweight: Virna Jandiroba vs. Loopy Godínez

Kuhn: Godinez to win (-200). Both women are eager to attempt takedowns, use ground control and attempt submissions. However, the performance metrics for Godinez are slightly better in a number of categories, even if she's less of a wrestling specialist than Jandiroba.

On the feet, Jandiroba has a reach advantage but, at 35, gives up five years of age. Neither woman likes to lead the pace of striking, but Godinez has superior accuracy and tighter defense.

There's little finishing potential on the feet, and because both are competent grapplers, I expect this to end up as a Godinez decision.

Featherweight: Julio Arce vs. Herbert Burns

Parker: Over 1.5 rounds (-120). Burns returns following a two-year layoff due to an injury he suffered against Algeo in his last fight. Burns is looking to break a two-fight losing streak. When it comes to Burns' UFC career, so far, it's either he wins in Round 1 or loses in Round 2. In this fight, if he can't implement his offensive jiu-jitsu game, he is going to be in trouble as Arce will be better everywhere the fight goes. Arce is sitting at a 3-1 favorite, so feel free to add him into a parlay. However, I'm going with the over 1.5 rounds as Arce's only finish wins in the UFC came in the middle of the second round or later.